Probability 2

I want us to avoid rambling on topics without establishing meaningful results that we can use. Until now we can agree general probability theory is garbage in understanding events and that if you think enough about a problem, you’re very likely to find the solution. So I encourage you to share your view, disapprove me or whatever so we can have results – this is not a social blog for those who are bored. I want it to become a philo-scientific blog to develop our understanding on chosen topics.

A long ago when going school and gambling I used to spend some time trying to understand randomness. One thing I used to do is flip a coin and think about the probability of either side over a series of trials. But I realized I was paying all my attention to the end result or outcome (head or tails) - not much on the process. Clearly the reason why I couldn't understand the results was because every flip was different. So if I flipped the coin so slowly so that I could count the number of flips I could know the outcome. - So throwing the coin wasn't actually a random at all - it's jus that I don’t have the ability with my vision to count the fast flips in the air, simple! So if I had some technology to make the counts I would know the outcome with 100% accuracy.

So what's the point of all this? - The point is that nothing is hardly random. We say it's random simply because we don't understand the causal dynamics of the process. Everything is a system. I believe if we go back thousands of years, forecasting the weather would seem ridiculous. Today we’ve establish advance ecosystems and other similar models. In the past or even today in parts of some developing nations, catching some disease or getting infected is considered an omen or punishment of some sinful act from gods. But with today’s medical knowledge we understand the causes of many diseases and conditions. Humans have a natural tendency to get superficial on anything they don’t understand.

So what happened to randomness? If we could identify the physics of throwing a dice and the roulette wheel spin is it really random? I believe once it overcomes your natural default ability to conceive or digest the process it is called ‘random’. With this view – taking part in any game or activity which you don’t understand – is a big mistake. For some it gives great thrill – as guessing right the outcome of a complex system gives a special feeling – in possession of super human gift or simply luck. Those who make a naked guess are luckier than those thoughtfully busy formulating an ‘intelligent’ guess on a process beyond their realm of understanding.

So - then what is true randomness?
Does not the fact that “black swans” do occur (albeit rarely) make it explainable? We don’t need Taleb telling us rare events happen. But is it not a result of a complex system?
How should we think of probability distributions?